By Caitlin Piccirillo-Stosser

 

 

 

Last Friday, October 23rd, EAF was proud to welcome back one of our founding members, Andrew Stevens. Since receiving his A.B. in Economics and Environmental Studies from UChicago in 2012, Andrew went off to the University of California—Berkeley, where he is currently a PhD Candidate in Agricultural and Resource Economics.  Andrew’s research focuses on agricultural production and environment, and he returned to UChicago to present his most recent research paper, “Fueling Local Water Pollution: Ethanol Refineries, Land Use, and Nitrate Runoff.”

Andrew began his presentation by asking his general research question: “How does the placement of ethanol refineries affect agricultural land use and nitrate levels?” He informed the audience that he intended his presentation to be a bit more informal, and invited us to ask questions at any time, indicative of his friendly, lighthearted personality. He gave us a brief background on corn production and nitrate runoff, describing how corn is grown using inorganic nitrogen fertilizers and is often grown in rotation with other crops such as soy that help to fix nitrogen, which results in decreasing the amount of additional fertilizer needed. When corn is continually grown on the same plot of land, more and more fertilizer has to be applied to restore nitrogen levels in the soil. Of course, nitrogen fertilizers pollute the ground and surface water, which lead to negative environmental impacts both locally and downstream. In addition, costs of transporting crops from a farm to the market are significant factors in determining which crops to grow. Andrew then introduced his hypothesis that there may be a local corn supply and demand response to where ethanol refineries are located.

Andrew predicted that if a new ethanol refinery is built closer to a field than the current existing market, the probability that corn will be grown on that field would increase. After sampling over two million fields in the U.S. Corn Belt (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska) spanning from 2002-2014 and using a novel econometric approach, Andrew found that his data supported his predictions. He discovered that the probability that a field grows corn in any given year is 2.5% higher for fields with an ethanol refinery less than 30 miles away, compared to fields with a refinery more than 30 miles away. He also found that farmers are not growing more corn after they grow soy, and instead are goring more corn-after-corn, which increases the amount of needed nitrogen fertilizers. This refinery placement effect led to 300,000 more acres of corn being planted in 2014 than in 2002, which translates to approximately 21,000 additional tons of nitrogen. Andrew laid out possible paths for future research, including exploring water pollution data and considering any differences that may exist between locally-owned and non-locally owned ethanol refineries. Andrew also kept his own notepad during the presentation, and wrote down several suggestions and questions that the audience had to offer such as considering the time lags and dependency of previously grown crops.

Attending this event was quite inspirational for us as EAF students, and had the feel of “Where Are They Now: EAF Edition.” Andrew’s research is clearly reflective of how involvement in EAF can help develop and form strong passions for agricultural and environmental research. This event was co-sponsored by UChicago’s Program on the Global Environment and the Environment, Agriculture, and Food Working Group at the University of Chicago.